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Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - Sustained Energy Shock
Retail
per Person
Physical Retail
Retail Sales, by Product Category
Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category
Core Retail Sales
by Device
by Distribution Strategy
by Season
Scenario: Tariff Reversal
Scenario: End-to-End Agentic Commerce
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, March 2026 - March 2026
Note: excludes auto and parts, diesel fuel, and gasoline; retail excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, restaurant sales, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Additional Note: A "sustained energy shock"—keeping crude above $100 for an extended period—drives persistent inflation and delays monetary easing. Higher gas prices temporarily lift topline retail sales, even as underlying demand weakens. At the same time, elevated energy costs shift spending toward essentials like food and household goods, while pressuring discretionary categories such as apparel, electronics, furniture, and home improvement.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.