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Retail Sales - Sustained Energy Shock
Retail
Total Retail Sales
per Person
Retail Sales, per Person
Physical Retail
Physical Retail Sales
Ecommerce
Retail Ecommerce Sales
Retail Ecommerce Sales, per Digital Buyer
Retail Sales, by Product Category
Retail Sales, by Product Category
Retail Sales Growth, by Product Category
Retail Sales Share, by Product Category
Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category
Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Category
Retail Ecommerce Sales Growth, by Product Category
Retail Ecommerce Sales Penetration, by Product Category: % of Category Retail Sales
Retail Ecommerce Sales Share, by Product Category: % of Total Retail Ecommerce Sales
Core Retail Sales
Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas
Retail Ecommerce Sales Excluding Auto & Gas
Physical Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas
by Device
Retail Mcommerce Sales
Desktop/Laptop Retail Ecommerce Sales
Smartphone Retail Mcommerce Sales
Tablet Retail Mcommerce Sales
by Distribution Strategy
D2C Ecommerce Sales
Multibrand Ecommerce Sales
by Retailer Type
Omnichannel Retailer Ecommerce Sales
Nonstore Retailer Ecommerce Sales
by Season
Retail Ecommerce Cyber Five Sales
Holiday Retail & Ecommerce Sales
Retail & Ecommerce Back-to-School Season Sales
Scenario: Tariff Reversal
Retail Sales - Tariff Reversal
Scenario: End-to-End Agentic Commerce
Retail Ecommerce Sales - End-to-End Agentic Commerce
Scenario: Sustained Energy Shock
Retail Sales - Sustained Energy Shock
Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - Sustained Energy Shock
Retail Ecommerce Sales - Sustained Energy Shock
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Source & Notes
Data Table
Source: EMARKETER Forecast- March 2026 
Note: excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill pay, taxes, or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other vice goods sales
Additional Note: A "sustained energy shock"—keeping crude above $100 for an extended period—drives persistent inflation and delays monetary easing. Higher gas prices temporarily lift topline retail sales, even as underlying demand weakens. At the same time, elevated energy costs shift spending toward essentials like food and household goods, while pressuring discretionary categories such as apparel, electronics, furniture, and home improvement.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues of major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, and macro-level economic conditions.
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